Exports of Unwrought Aluminum Alloy in October Up 50.7% YoY, Consumption Resilience Remains [SMM Cast Aluminum Alloy Morning Comment]

SMM Cast Aluminum Alloy Morning Comment on 11.21

Futures: The most-traded cast aluminum alloy 2601 contract opened at 20,800 yuan/mt overnight, hit a low of 20,795 yuan/mt, and finally closed at 20,810 yuan/mt, up 30 yuan/mt or 0.14% from the previous close. Trading volume was 1,145, and open interest was 12,312. The short-term moving average (MA5: 20,825) turned downward, with the price trading below the MA5; medium and long-term moving averages (MA10, MA20) remained above, indicating the price is in a phased correction trend. The DIFF (74.94) was lower than the DEA (126.33), and the green bars continued to expand (STICK: -102.78), suggesting short-term bearish dominance and an ongoing adjustment trend. The day's trading volume shrank significantly compared to previous sessions, indicating decreased market activity and a temporarily easing tug-of-war between longs and shorts, with short-term fluctuations and adjustments likely to continue.

Spot-Futures Price Spread Daily Report: According to SMM data, on November 20, the SMM ADC12 spot price was at a theoretical premium of 570 yuan/mt to the closing price of the most-traded cast aluminum alloy contract (AD2601) at 10:15.

Industry Dynamics: (1) Aluminum Scrap Imports: According to the latest customs data, China's aluminum scrap imports in October 2025 were approximately 155,400 mt, up about 19% YoY. By source country, the top suppliers of aluminum scrap to China in October were Thailand, the UK, Japan, the US, and other countries and regions, with Thailand accounting for 23.0% of the total imports. (2) Aluminum Alloy Imports: Customs data showed that unwrought aluminum alloy imports in October 2025 were 76,400 mt, down 33.8% YoY and 7.1% MoM. Cumulative imports from January to October 2025 totaled 841,000 mt, down 16.4% YoY. Unwrought aluminum alloy exports in October 2025 were 30,900 mt, up 50.7% YoY and 31.6% MoM. Cumulative exports from January to October 2025 reached 228,700 mt, up 13.8% YoY.

Warrant Daily Report: SHFE data showed that the total registered warrant for cast aluminum alloy on November 20 was 61,058 mt, an increase of 211 mt from the previous trading day. By region, the total registered volume in Shanghai was 4,757 mt, unchanged from the previous day; Guangdong was 19,062 mt, up 211 mt; Jiangsu was 11,000 mt, unchanged; Zhejiang was 19,811 mt, unchanged; Chongqing was 6,308 mt, unchanged; Sichuan was 120 mt, unchanged.

Aluminum Scrap Side: Spot primary aluminum prices rebounded slightly on Thursday compared to the previous trading day, with the SMM A00 spot price closing at 21,550 yuan/mt, while aluminum scrap market quotations showed significant regional divergence. Baled UBC was centrally quoted at 16,300-16,800 yuan/mt (ex-tax), while shredded aluminum tense scrap (priced based on aluminum content) was centrally quoted at 18,000-18,500 yuan/mt (ex-tax). Wait-and-see sentiment prevailed in Jiangxi, Hunan, Hubei, and Guizhou, where suppliers held quotations steady. East China and central China followed aluminum prices and raised prices by 50-100 yuan/mt on the same day. Overall, the market is expected to continue the high-level tug-of-war between sellers and buyers. It is advisable to closely track primary aluminum price trends, changes in environmental protection policies, and adjustments in downstream enterprises' procurement strategies, while remaining alert to the risk of a high-level correction.

Silicon metal: (1) Prices: On November 20, SMM non-oxygen blown #553 in east China was at 9,300-9,400 yuan/mt; oxygen-blown #553 at 9,500-9,600 yuan/mt; #521 at 9,600-9,800 yuan/mt; #441 at 9,700-9,800 yuan/mt; #421 at 9,700-9,900 yuan/mt; #421 for silicone use at 9,800-10,200 yuan/mt; #3303 at 10,400-10,600 yuan/mt. Silicon prices also increased in some areas including Huangpu Port, Tianjin, Northwest China, Xinjiang, Sichuan, and Shanghai. Prices in Kunming remained stable. (2) Inventory: According to SMM statistics, social inventory of silicon metal in major regions totaled 548,000 mt on November 20, up 2,000 mt WoW. This included 129,000 mt in social ordinary warehouses, up 2,000 mt WoW, and 419,000 mt in social delivery warehouses (including unregistered warrants and spot inventory), flat WoW (excluding Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Gansu, etc.).

Overseas market: Current overseas ADC12 quotations ranged from $2,600-2,640/mt, with an immediate import loss of about 400 yuan/mt, keeping the import window closed. Local ADC12 ex-tax quotations in Thailand were at 84-85 baht/kg.

Inventory: According to SMM statistics, the weekly social inventory of secondary aluminum alloy ingots in four major consumption areas (Foshan, Shanghai, Ningbo, Wuxi) totaled 56,500 mt on November 20, increasing slightly by 800 mt from the previous Thursday (November 13).

Summary: Aluminum prices recovered slightly on Thursday, with the SMM A00 aluminum spot price reported at 21,570 yuan/mt, up 20 yuan/mt from the previous day. ADC12 prices held steady at 21,450 yuan/mt, mainly due to limited price fluctuations in raw materials and mediocre market transactions, leaving enterprises with little motivation to adjust prices. In the short term, ADC12 may continue to fluctuate within a narrow range, with the tight supply pattern of aluminum scrap persisting and cost support remaining firm; demand-side resilience remains, and rigid procurement will provide a floor for prices.

[Data source statement: Except for public information, other data are processed by SMM based on public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database model, for reference only and not constituting decision-making advice.]